1.1) Systems Thinking

"Systems Thinking" describes an approach to studying the behaviour of complex systems over time. The development of this approach is attributed to Prof. Jay Forrester who studied business economics at MIT in the 1950s. He observed that many of the problems faced by business could not be explained by the “business cycle”, but rather required a deeper understanding of the business itself. The basis for the methodology he developed can be summarized in the following statements:

• Linear correlations (‘cause’ -> ‘effect’) are not sufficient to explain complex behaviour, instead this often arises from ‘circular’ causal dependency, feedback loops, and delays.
• The behaviour of a system is determined by its internal (endogenous) structure, i.e. the properties of the system and the relationships between them.
• Systems thinking is "top-down", assuming that the actions and interactions of individual constituents of a population are linear and can be aggregated. Variables in system dynamics are usually accumulations, not individuals.